Tesla shares dip as RBC lowers price target to $210, citing Model 3 delivery outlook

Dennis Fitzgerald and Thomas Franck from CNBC leverage RBC Analyst Joseph Spak’s price reduction to create TSLA fear.

A 14.3% price chop Tesla (25% lower than current market value) for delivering 8% less vehicles. That is what Joseph Spak from RBC would have you believe. Let’s see how right they are about the 52,500 deliveries. They expect lower than initially thought. Assuming these analysts are good, Tesla should produce less than 57,000 vehicles.

I am not a professional analyst. I code all day. But from what I have seen, Tesla has been steadily producing 6,000 vehicles per week. We are talking about vehicle production, not sales. Sales are different.

My quick math works out to 72,000 this quarter. While I expect that to be high in terms of a best case, I guess we will see who is closer. The developer who puts 10 seconds into a calculation or a (full-time?) professional Analyst who works for a multi billion dollar bank and is so confident Tesla will under-perform that they reduce their projection by 8%.

FUD (6 points)

fear points (3)

• RBC maintained its Underperform rating for the electric-car maker Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares declined Monday after RBC Capital Markets lowered its share price target to $210 from $245 on concern that the company will produce fewer Model 3s.
• The back-and-forth on strategy as well as potential legal overhangs are also impediments for incremental buyers of the stock.
• The Securities and Exchange Commission has said Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s tweets on projected production violated an October settlement.

uncertainty points (1)

doubt points (2)

• the electric-car maker will produce 52,500 Model 3s, down from the bank’s prior outlook of 57,000
• We see muted growth over the next few years as 2019 and 2020 revenue are likely to be below the fourth-quarter of 2018 run-rate

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