September 15th, 2020

This is just my opinion. Not to be confused with financial advice.

I give GM a very high probability of being able to successfully produce the Nikola Badger. I would say over 95% likely they are capable.

For this article, we can assume that is 100%. The Nikola Badger H2/BEV still wont work.

It relies on H2 filling stations. No H2 filling stations, the H2 component is dumb and so you just have the BEV. But if you have a BEV, then Nikola isn't needed to fulfill the role of providing H2 filling stations.

Nikola is only useful in this deal if they provide H2 filling stations and H2 is super cheap.

Nikola's claims about Hydrogen filling stations according to Hindenburg Research:

Inexpensive hydrogen is fundamental to the success of Nikola’s business model. Trevor has claimed in a presentation to hundreds of people and in multiple interviews to have succeeded at cutting the cost of hydrogen by ~81% compared to peers and to already be producing hydrogen. Nikola has not produced hydrogen at this price or at any price as he later admitted when pressed by media.

It cannot be assumed with high probability that having never produced hydrogen, it can be achieved with such magnificent reduction in cost.

The main reasons GM doesn't move foward with H2 is:

  • Costs of Hydrogen
  • Requires Hydrogen filling infrastructure

This is what Nikola is supposed to bring. If Nikola doesn't bring this, H2 doesn't make sense again.

So, based on Trevors recent deceptions, I give it over a 99% probability that Nikola fail on H2.

If Nikola does fail on H2, then GM will proceed down the wrong road for as long as they choose to go. Not smart. GM needs to partner with Tesla on BEV. The sooner the better. Lock in cell and pack and FSD and Supercharger deals. Beg Tesla if you have to.

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Software Developer always striving to be better. Learn from others' mistakes, learn by doing, fail fast, maximize productivity, and really think hard about good defaults. Computer developers have the power to add an entire infinite dimension with a single Int (or maybe BigInt). The least we can do with that power is be creative.