April 7th, 2020
If you bought TSLA and sold at the right times, you could have made $901.80 per initial $34.65 investment. If you were to just buy and hold, you would have only made $443.50. However, if you bought and held, you would have actually made about the same amount if you got out at the top.
Figure 1

Figure 1 illustrates the above algorithm - buying on green dots and selling on red. This is what would result in the $901 profit. But buying on the first blue dot would have negated all the extraordinary efforts in timing the market perfectly to achieve the initial results. Had you exited TSLA completely on the last red dot, you would have missed by only a couple weeks the first blue dot. Had you purchased at the first green dot and sold only on the first blue dot, you would have done about the same as if you timed the market perfectly since 2012.

So what caused the massive breakout from the bottom two resistance lines? It was absolutely GF3 (Gigafactory Shanghia) being built and online within a year (better than most expected).

What could cause the second blue dot to occur? How about a double whammy off of this list:

  • Battery production facilitating Grid Cell Storage (AKA Surprise! Energy makes more $ than vehicle production)
  • Solar roof ramp better than expected
  • Semi-truck ramp better than expected
  • Giga Berlin going online in 2021
  • Giga Texas going online in 2022
  • GF3 Battery Production sooner/better than expected
  • Tesla Insurance expansion World-wide
  • FSD v1 Deployment
  • Robotaxi Deployment
  • Production Doubling
  • Model Y outselling Model 3 with record production
  • TSLA joins S&P 500

Also we have Tesla Roadster, Model Y ramp, Cybertruck ramp and numerous software enhancements to look forward to.

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Software Developer always striving to be better. Learn from others' mistakes, learn by doing, fail fast, maximize productivity, and really think hard about good defaults. Computer developers have the power to add an entire infinite dimension with a single Int (or maybe BigInt). The least we can do with that power is be creative.