November 22nd, 2019

The morning after:

After seeing social media fallout of this truck, people and TSLA are behaving pretty much exactly how I expected they would.

When you come out and say "...this truck won't be for everyone..." he pretty much nailed it.

I reserved because I was going to no matter what. In fact, the reservation fee was $100 vs $1000 with the Model 3 and $3000 with the Model Y. So the capital risk was really a no-brainer. And being fully refundable makes it no risk.

The best part about the reservation is that it locks you in for the current FSD price. Of course, it only makes sense to check that box.

The earliest models are likely the higher priced models which is what I reserved in case TSLA shoots up to where this truck could be covered by the 20X growth in stock. I am hoping that is the case.

The biggest surprise for me was the price. Elon going from $49,000 to $39,000 with the base model was shocking to me. I really didn't expect the $49,000 to be the mid-model.

Could this be the death of Rivian. No. Not this one. But Elon did say if the reactions to the truck were not good enough, they wont make it.

The problem with this though is that by charging a $100 fee instead of Rivian making a $1000 fee, or the Model 3 making a $1000 fee, the comparison is completely lost and the appeal to reserve at such a low price point could be orders of magnitude higher.

Which poses a problem, if Tesla gets 400,000 reservations, what does that even mean? How many will actually convert?

With tentative plans to change direction, I am curious to know how many reservations there are at the end of the week. If this number is below 800,000, then I expect Tesla will be designing a new body shape.

Structurally, it would not be as good. Range wont be as good. And it is to be expected that all other specs would be just as good.

Going to Rivian's website, I considered reserving. But upon seeing the $1000 deposit, I immediately re-considered and then talked myself out of it because I like the F150's headlights better and I expect it would be the same truck.

A huge opportunity has arose from this for other car makers. The first other car maker to partner with Tesla for every truck component they can get their hands on, could potentially release a truck sooner? Maybe? Probably not. But ASAP anyway.

If Tesla provides battery power train solutions for other OEMs in the truck department, it could very well make those trucks far more compelling than Ford and Rivian's. If other OEM's unveil exact clones of their currently designed trucks (Toyota Tachoma, Chevy Silverado), but with Tesla's specs, interior etc. that will be a massive day for that company. I would definitely reserve one.

...Oh and one more thing...

I expect this truck would last longer than anything out there. The hard body, battery improvements and "transparent metal glass" do seem to be quite awesome. The likelihood that Tesla moves on and builds something else is quite high. Even with 800,000 reservations, the number could be inflated and doesn't convert near as close to their ramp. If Tesla begins to develop a surplus of these (I think Tesla itself would have use for them in terms of delivery vehicles) but beyond that if they start to get thousands of them unsold, I think they will move towards making the most minimal changes as possible to appeal to a much larger audience. It might not be long after where they adjust their assembly line to focus on a different look. At which point, you may never see the Cybertruck produced ever again. It could be a rare vehicle and since it really doesn't need to be any better than what they claimed, the best models would be worth the most.

I am considering getting this vehicle because it's value to go extremely high if Tesla were to stop making it which has a seemingly high probability.

It's possible that in 10 years Tesla will be making a truck so amazing that it makes this one look puny. But I don't think there is that much room for improvement in specs.

The video last night was quite short. I expect we haven't seen everything that the Cybertruck can do. I would like to know how well it carries sheets of 8'x4' wood/drywall etc. I am sure they have thought of that. If they can build a ramp that lowers the back end of the car and allows an ATV to drive on top, plug in and charge.... then I expect they would be able to hold standard building materials. I look forward to all of the future demonstrations.

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Software Developer always striving to be better. Learn from others' mistakes, learn by doing, fail fast, maximize productivity, and really think hard about good defaults. Computer developers have the power to add an entire infinite dimension with a single Int (or maybe BigInt). The least we can do with that power is be creative.