Will Tesla Win?August 9th, 2019
Level 5 Autonomy is when the car can drive itself in any human drive-able condition.
Why is Telsa going to win? Well for starters, they have a head-start in producing cars which they claim will be capable of full self driving (FSD). And that comes with DATA!
Current production cars and past production cars with a HW3 computer upgrade will be able to drive themselves if Tesla figure out FSD.
Furthermore, to beat Tesla, you would have to outplay Tesla. And to outplay, you need better players.
Lex Fridman, is one of Tesla's All Stars. He interviews his competition here:
Even the best competition admits he himself will solve Level 5 "2 years after Tesla".
The Tesla bears don't seem to understand what they are betting against. When the best players flock to a company as pointed out yesterday by Kevin O'Leary, they are stacking their team. When a team gets stacked, they dominate. It would be like an average team going up against an All Star lineup.
Is the Tesla turnover rate for executives and directors high? Duh! Everybody is trying to get an All Star player on their team too. And they have the money to do it. But taking one player here and there won't balance the game.
Tesla is going to win more than FSD. They are going to win everything. They are going to be able to make cars cost competitive with gas cars. They are winning that already and they will succeed completely.
And that means, just like Jay Leno pointed out yesterday There's Almost No Reason to Have a Gas Car. And when there is no point to buy a gas car, and the best Electric car company has pushed themselves to the highest volume Lithium Ion manufacturer, they will have the biggest cost advantage. So there won't be any point in buying a more expensive inferior electric car from competitors either.
Whooof. So how do you compete with Tesla? You join them. Competing car manufacturers need to minimise their contributions and maximize Tesla contributions in terms of parts and assembly.
If I were another Auto CEO, I would be going to Tesla and asking, "How can I get your car with my design?". People still love other car brands. And they love other car designs. By partnering with Tesla, you can gain access to their Supercharging network and essentially catch up.
For other Auto, it is like trying to catch Usain Bolt when he was given a head start. Let Tesla win and leech off their success. And do it soon. Because each integration with another automotive manufacturer will take quite a bit of time and effort. It could take a year or two or even longer to get a Tesla Ford Mustang into production. Is it not smart for Ford to let Audi or BMW integrate first. But it really might come out of desperation. It is highly likely that one Auto Manufacturer gets so far behind that they make a last ditch effort with the motto - If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
I believe Tesla openly welcomes new partners. But those partners have to play well with Tesla. They can't demand changes from Tesla. They need to take 99% of what Tesla has and add their 1% to it. Otherwise, it will be their competition who does and succeeds in selling a self-driving, over-the-air updating, safe, fast, fun, minimalist, cost effective, low maintenance re-branded Tesla.
Tesla will win everything. When the only way to survive is to let Tesla make 99% of the car, they will be making all the cars sold.
If you are a bear, you should be aware that Tesla is selling all the cars they make and cannot keep up with demand. By increasing production (and you are a fool if you think Tesla has hit their max production) they eat more and more into the sales of other car companies. This increases the number of new cars unsold and put in a new car graveyard for other manufacturers.
Tesla cars are viral. I sell everybody I meet on why they should have a Tesla as their next car. The only way it makes sense for me to recommend a Mustang is if it is a Tesla Model 3 in a Ford Mustang body. And even then, because the Model 3 is so much more aerodynamic, it's range will be longer and potentially appealing. But at least it would have all the other advantages of a Tesla and would appeal to Mustang fans.
Software Developer always striving to be better. Learn from others' mistakes, learn by doing, fail fast, maximize productivity, and really think hard about good defaults. Computer developers have the power to add an entire infinite dimension with a single Int (or maybe BigInt). The least we can do with that power is be creative.
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